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Who want’s to play: ‘Guess the Next Airline to go BUST?’


UPDATE TO THE FOLLOWING BLOG ENTRY:  Well, it seems that Paddy Power have removed both the bet AND the blog entry titled ‘Next Airline to go Bust?’ Maybe they had too many complaints? Whatever the reason; I’m glad that they will not be helping create consumer panic about airlines, and possibly helping cause their demise.

WTF!!! How about this for sick? Paddy Power, an Irish Gambling company are taking bets from punters who fancy having a flutter on which will be the next airline to go bust! They obviously think the situation is hilarious; and kindly set up (their own) odds as to which airline is most likely.

I am very alarmed at some of them, but Bf assures me that in his humble opinion, the odds don’t quite tally with his (hopefully more informed) opinion.  Just in case you wanted to see them, the odds, as given until 3rd October 2008, are:

(Click on the image to enlarge) 

The blurb above the odds reads:

Applies to the next airline to go into official administration and cease operating (ground all its fleet). Does not include Alitalia. Does not include service/flights being ‘phased out’ before merging with another airline

Well thanks for clearing that up guys! Glad it’s all such a big laugh for you there in your little gambling world!

The link for the above bet is here.  They seem to have focused more on European airlines, and it seems they have already written off Alitalia, Italy’s largest airline who are currently in crisis talks for Bankruptcy protection. 

Don’t become too unduly worried if you see your airline on the list thoughThe idiots at Paddy Power are obviously not that astute or well researched in this field if this news story by the Mail Online is anything to go by: Bookies took last-minute rush of bets that airline would go bust. (They can’t seem to make their mind up for longer than 5 minutes as to which the next one to go will be…)

A bookmaker took so many bets on XL Airways going bust yesterday afternoon that it closed the book, it revealed today…  Irish bookies Paddy Power issued a list of airlines on Wednesday afternoon offering odds on which would be the next to go under – XL was not even on the list.  …But it was put on at the request of a punter who asked for odds on XL and it swiftly became the hot favourite to close down.

‘We started to see significant gambling yesterday afternoon and by close of play they were at 4/6,’ said a spokeswoman.  ‘It didn’t seem to matter what price we offered, the bets kept coming. It made us sit up and take notice and eventually we have to shut up shop on the market.’  …‘Quite a few people will be walking away with £2,000 profit,’ she said. …Undaunted by a loss of thousands, the bookmaker is preparing to offer fresh odds on which is the next airline to go bust.

The bookies later resumed taking bets on which airline folds next – with Air Berlin as 7/1 favourite followed by Spanish carrier Vueling Airlines just behind at 8/1.

Spokeswoman Sharon McHugh said: ‘It mightn’t be the most fun market to bet on but the fact of the matter is it’s happening, it’s reality, and it’s of huge public interest.  ‘Our customers are very interested in our latest betting and it will be very interesting to see if there’s a gamble on any other airline in our list.’

12th September 2008

Does anyone else find this as completely inappropriate and distasteful as I do?!  …Well they must know that some will because they also posted this blog entry:

Ok, so betting on the next airline to go out of business isn’t exactly the nicest market to bet on but it’s what everyone is talking about. As topics of conversation go we’d say it’s right on par with the weather!

We never invisioned how popular betting on the next airline to go bust would become when we went Live with betting last Wednesday. Ever since we reported a significant gamble on XL airlines to go belly up on Thursday afternoon (unless you’ve been living under a stone you’ll know they filed for administration on Friday) punters have been logging on and taking notice of the ever changing odds.

Between Alitalia verging on the brink of bankruptcy and SkyEurope and Air Berlin attracting interest from pessimistic punters it’s all a little too close to call at the moment and if the betting today is anything to go by there could very well be a further ’spanair’ in the works…(pardon the pun, I couldn’t resist P )

Spanair’s odds have crashed from 16/1 to 11/4 today. Will the odds nosedive anymore? The bright side for yee worried commuters is you can practically insure your flights by having a bet on your chosen airline with us. So you see, every cloud has a silver lining afterall! ;)

Click here for the latest odds on which airline will go bust next.

These were a few of the comments that the blog entry received:

Richard Tierney Says: September 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pm A new low for paddy power. As someone who works in the aviation Industry and a big horse racing fan. I am disgusted with the fact that Paddy Power is trying to make a profit from the prospect of good honest people lossing their livelihood. Your odds compilers I’m assuming know very little about the Industry.

Helen Says: September 21st, 2008 at 7:43 pmDear all,  I am very proud to work for Flyglobespan, yeah we made a loss last year…we have learned our lesson!THE WHOLE COMPANY IS WORKING AS A TEAM!!! I have worked for several airlines and we may have made a few mistakes, but i can honestly say this year is going great apart from some people who obviously are not in the industry and do not understand how airlines work!! sabotaging our reputation with these rumours…If this was last year and the fuel crisis had happend I would be wary…..but as I have witnessed positive changes…I really am not worried… We are makeing a fortune on these winter contracts!!!What does concern me is some people’s attitude..we need support…..not people making bets…afterall if more airlines do end up going bust…this isnt just bad for the airline but for passengers!!!

Alan Says: September 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm Could you have chosen a worse set of words to describe Spanair’s fortunes? A pretty despicable low for an already tasteless campaign.

People are easily fooled! Says: September 23rd, 2008 at 10:53 amPaddy Power has the same influance as the media, of course if they start spouting that a company is going to go bust then people will start betting and the media will swoop on it like vultures with their helping hand in making that happen. Once Fly Globespan customer read bad press like this load of nosense then the Paddy Power along with other bad press will seal the fate of Fly Globspan regardless to its state business as customers will be scared to book with them. As for the comments about putting a bet on your own death or crossing a road then yes i agree that is a possibllity that it could happen but me putting a bet on that doesnt increase the chances of that happening does it. Come on guys give these airline workers a break. Dont you think they are all worried enough about their jobs with the collapse of XL? The people have families to support for God’s sake. Shame of you Paddy Power and all you gamblers that are chucking good money down the drain…tut tut tut

Jo Says: September 23rd, 2008 at 2:28 pm I’m disgusted that Paddy Power are taking bets on which airline will go bust next. I’m sure you realise that this sort of stupidity creates malicious rumours… and who in their right mind would book a flight through an airline that they heard ‘most likely to go bust’. If anything, Paddy Power, you’re contributing to the downfall of these companies – and helping to make a tough time for the people that work for these airlines even tougher.

People betting on these odds should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. You obviously have more money than morals. I only hope you all come face to face with the prospect of losing your job and not being able to support your family. Then you might understand how it feels. Although, I’m sure you won’t have people WANTING you to lose your livelihood just so they can make a few quid.

Katie Ann Says: September 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am Something should be done about the disgraceful halfwits in Paddy Power betting on this, you should be ashamed and the constant slandering of other companies, then deleting posts to cover themselves by Powers employees is disgraceful, hope yous get what yous deserve!!!!

Sully Says: September 26th, 2008 at 12:06 pm Lads, people with massive mortgages on houses that are no longer financially viable are losing their jobs and facing hell on earth, and you have guys here defending peoples rights to bet on their misery.

Jo Says: September 29th, 2008 at 12:35 pm Any scummy member of the British public that has placed a bet on these odds needs to have a long hard look at themselves. Mind you, they obviously don’t have two brain cells to rub together, or they’d realise what they’re actually betting on.

I had to have my say too, and just posted the following comment:

partner of a pilot Says: October 2nd, 2008 at 11:22 am I think it’s an absolute disgrace that Paddy Power and their customers are betting on this like it’s some kind of game! Are you people sick in the head or something?! Airline industry workers are worriedly watching the financial news and those who are Internet savvy follow the news online to be greeted by THIS RUBBISH!!!

Exactly what gives PP the right to torment these people and their families this way-like it’s some hilarious joke? This is nothing more that playground bully taunts; and you should be ashamed!

Seriously, what’s wrong with the people organising and placing these bets?!?!?!?!?!

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5 Responses to “Who want’s to play: ‘Guess the Next Airline to go BUST?’”

  1. While it is unfortunate, and very poor taste… I have to say that it’s not as bad as the celebrity death pool.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_pool

  2. Thank God Cpt J’s airline is not on there! Not that I take any of this stupidity seriously.

  3. It could well end up on there if a gambler requests odds on it. Thats how the madness works! Irish logic.

  4. Thanks for the post. It does sound “stupid” to have such bets, but there are a lot of people who love speculative gambling. With the plethora of online betting websites, there is an urge to “invent” something new that cause us to blog about them :). In the end the house always wins, so the people (as a group) who bet lose!

    On second thought, how different is this from the stock markets (for the publicly trading company). Anyone can “short” a stock and make a fortune if the company goes down under.

    Personally, I would not worry about the odds used (don’t think they are statistically correct) because of the following factors –
    1. Price of Crude Oil is going down and seems to be continuing to trend.
    2. Nobody wants their flag carriers to go bust (even Alitalia with a horrible business model and history will get rescued)
    3. A lot of bankruptcies (esp. in US) are for “restructuring and reorganization”

    All said, there is a global recession and the smaller and newer airlines are definitely going through “worse times”, but obviously nobody willingly goes bankrupt or “under administration”.

  5. Well, I believe there are some valid points in the comments. People are easily led by the media, and I wonder how many customers will stop buying tickets with perfectly will performing airlines on the strength of this?

    These odds help to fuel gossip and rumours about the aviation industry, without explaining the source of their information.

    Just because the stock market also isn’t infallible; doesn’t justify what Paddy Power are doing… It’s like they’re playing dominoes with the airlines-setting them up to fall one by one for 5 minutes of sick amusement, and a ‘quick buck’.


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